The trap

Submitted by Lindsay
Melbourne Australia!

O infinite virtue! Coms’t thou smiling from the world’s great snare uncaught?
- Shakespeare, Antony and Cleopatra

(10/2021) Australia has just stepped into the trap that was presented to them by the United States. Not that choice was actually possible, so we have now taken the first steps to become America’s fifty second state. Almost. Is this good? Frankly, no, not for either country. Not many our citizens will get anything out of it, none of our major industries, agriculture, tertiary industries, none of these. None of your citizens either, but the big gains are for your armaments industry. The part that builds submarines, anyway.

But for once it’s not about this, it’s not aimed at increasing wealth or growth, it’s about America’s realisation that China must be stopped. You, the strongest nation, has been weakened over the past decades, and for a while, when Trump was at the helm, it was on the way to becoming a second-rate power. The new administration has a clear-eyed notion of what is needed, and that is to confront China. Not with sanctions and trade wars, rhetoric or bluster, but with a barrier of defensive positions around the pacific. The message this has send to China is clear: ‘You think you can expand into the pacific, become dominant in the rest of Asia?’

‘No! We put you on notice. You want to become number one, but that will not happen. Apart from the sheer stupidity of it, you could never win. You do not have the resources, because it will not be a short sharp victory, it will break you, and possibly us, but we will not let it happen.’

And I am sure China knows this. It is a game of brinksmanship, something China has never tried before. Their experience in foreign relations is limited, and they possibly have no instinctive understanding of America’s underlying values. They see the blatant capitalism, the arrogance and high-handed subversion of other countries, as well as the warlike approach to getting what they want, but that is not the real value of your country. Yes, you put yourselves first, the same as everywhere, but you are not paranoid or in need of greater respect.

In fact, your strength is not one that China can ever have, being now welded to their idea of Chinese capitalism – with not a trace of Democracy. You may say that Democracy is dead, but if you do, please compare what you have to China. They have negative amounts of it, and while they didn’t need it to herd their billions of citizens, no dictatorship can beat a democracy because, despite its shortcomings, it has the ability to freewheel, to allow dissenting voices to be heard.

It seems likely that this ‘ring of steel’ may be all it takes, because the actuality is, I am told, about 20 years away. Which may seem like a long time, but it constrains China in its thinking. And that has to be the aim, for the present.

Now that is all well and good, but there are many more dice in this game. One thing that America has perhaps not understood about the current Australian government is just how inept they are at foreign relationships, communications and assertiveness; even that isn’t important, because we have wedged ourselves into a potentially economic disaster. In case you have forgotten, China is our biggest trading partner, but for just one item: Iron ore. Ours is the best, and the closest, and while China was expanding its use of iron, that is now being wound back as its house building is nearing completion. Back in October 2018 it was $70 per ton, in July this year it reached $225, and now is $115 and falling. Our whole economic strategy has been predicated on the price staying high, and while it is still very profitable, the record surpluses are likely to be a thing of the past, and we may well be unable to meet our interest on our huge debts, even at 0.01%.

Nonetheless, the hyperbole is already emerging, praising our guy for his foresight in getting American and Britain to ‘persuade’ you to sell us its atomic subs so they will cooperate in his plan to contain China. This has done something extraordinary – for the first time in ages, we are laughing, tears running down our cheeks. Well, if you tell lies, they had better be big, but this? When grilled Scomo (our PM), assured us they would have no atomic weapons, and cost something above 50 billion. Whoopee!

Now the reality: America, with Britain tagging along, know that the only way to prevent China’s eastward expansion is to stop their warships leaving the South China sea and getting into the deep waters of the Pacific. And the best way to do that is with atomic submarines. They can operate far longer without refuelling, have the latest and updating technology, and they need them here.

This seems to have taken China by surprise, as they have based their strategy on probabilities. The future is much more dynamic than they envisaged, and to date have been speechless.

Well, that is the politics, but the people are puzzled. We had a contract with France for nine diesel subs, with guaranteed fit-outs here. The new ones will have no work done here, (although that has not been announced, and won’t be - but is the opinion of certain people who study these things), but what we will get, free of charge, are many more American troops, bases and therefore domestic spending, all in the underpopulated, jungly North. In fact, we will become a huge new addition to American quasi-states: Having to smile as we do what we are told, with no voting rights.

Will America bail us out of our approaching economic catastrophe? Expletive NO! Will our employment grow? Hardly.

I haven’t mentioned our neighbours; Indonesia is horrified at the thought of atomics nearby, an atomic war now being more likely. New Zealand has had a ban on and shipborne atomics for years.

Poor France. They are apoplectic. No notice, just an announcement. Their ambassadors have gone from here and the US, but the good old Aussie saying, ‘She’ll be right, mate,’ was today's message.